Half the nation, a hundred million citizens strong
Sep 11th 2008
Ever since it was first spotted amid the factory smoke of western Europe’s industrialising nations, the middle class has borne the hopes for progress of politicians, economists and shopkeepers alike. It remains hard to define, and attempts to do so often seem arbitrary. But in Brazil, the middle class describes those with a job in the formal economy, access to credit and ownership of a car or motorbike. According to the Fundação Getúlio Vargas (FGV), a research institute, this means households with a monthly income ranging from 1,064 reais ($600) to 4,561 reais. Since 2002, according to FGV, the proportion of the population that fits this description has increased from 44% to 52%. Brazil, previously notorious for its extremes, is now a middle-class country.
This social climbing is a feature mainly of the country’s cities, reversing two decades of stagnation that began at the start of the 1980s. Marcelo Neri of FGV suggests two factors behind the change. The first is education. The quality of teaching in Brazil’s schools may still be poor, but those aged 15-21 now spend on average just over three more years studying than their counterparts did in the early 1990s.
The second is a migration of jobs from the informal “black” economy to the formal economy. The rate of formal job creation is accelerating, with 40% more created in the year to this July than in the previous 12 months, which itself set a record. Together with cash transfers to poor families, this helps to explain why – in contrast with economic and social development in India or China – as Brazil’s middle class has grown, so the country’s income inequality has lessened.
To the ballot box
What impact will a larger middle class have on politics? Past polling suggests people in this income bracket would tend to favour the centre-left Party of Brazilian Social Democracy (PSDB) of former president Fernando Henrique Cardoso over Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s Workers’ Party (PT).
Yet according to Mauro Paulino of Datafolha, a pollster, Lula’s personal popularity and his government’s social programmes have disturbed this equation. “Those who have moved up from class D to C and experienced help from the government along the way, are likely to stick with the PT,” he says. David Fleischer of the University of Brasilia has calculated that PT candidates, or those allied with the party, are at present ahead in 20 out of 26 mayoral races for state capitals in next month’s municipal elections.
The middle class has meanwhile reshaped the PT in its own image: the party’s wilder economic rhetoric is now muted. It also has to pay attention to a group of voters that has risen into the middle class and brought with it socially-conservative attitudes towards abortion and gay marriage. But it remains ironic that this great social transformation, which has been brought about in part by greater openness to trade with the rest of the world, may end up bolstering a party that, until fairly recently, favoured autarky.
www.economist.com/world/americas/PrinterFriendly.cfm?story_id=12208726 (adaptado)
No trecho do primeiro parágrafo do texto – It remains hard to define, and attempts to do so often seem arbitrary – a expressão "to do so":
a) refere-se a "middle class in Brazil".
b) refere-se a "seem arbitrary".
c) define "middle class".
d) refere-se a "middle class in western Europe".
e) refere-se a "hard to define".
